Key Insights from January’s Canadian Housing Data

1. Housing starts were effectively flat year-over-year; no real momentum: Housing Starts (Actual) rose marginally by 0.8% year-over-year in January 2026, indicating a stabilization in headline activity following December’s rebound. However, the January standalone seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) declined 15% month-over-month to 238,049 units (from 280,668 in December). This modest annual gain suggests builders are not materially accelerating new projects.

2. Completions surged to a record quarter-over-quarter increase: Completions in Q4 2025 rose 46.6% compared to Q3 2025, the largest quarter-over-quarter increase recently recorded in the observable dataset (noting missing data between Q1 2023 and Q2 2025). This outsized surge indicates a significant backlog of projects reaching delivery simultaneously. This materially boosts near-term supply but also raises absorption risk in markets where demand has moderated. We believe this surge is an anomaly given starts and permitting data throughout 2025.

3. Canada’s homebuilding slowdown is increasingly regionally bifurcated: Recent analysis from TD Economics (published Jan 29, 2026) shows that national housing data mask widening regional gaps. Ontario (especially the GTA) has seen the sharpest pullback in ownership-oriented construction, while Alberta continues to lead Prairie strength, supported by strong population growth. National activity has been sustained primarily by purpose-built rental construction, with ground-oriented development lagging.

We’ll continue to monitor the data and will share another update as soon as February numbers are released. Stay tuned.