We're tracking the data that matters most to understand where the system is breaking down—and how to fix it.

Housing Starts

- 2.9% (Oct 2025 vs Oct 2024)

  - 10.8% (Oct 2024 vs Oct 2023)         

  Completions 

+ 26.8% (Oct 2025 vs Oct 2024)

  + 9.1% (Oct 2024 vs Oct 2023)         

 Cost to Build  

  + 4.2% (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)  

  + 3.9% (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023)         

Permits Issued

 - 8.0% (Sep 2025 vs Sep 2024) 

  + 4.2% (Sep 2024 vs Sep 2023)         

Project Times 

 + 8.9% (Oct 2025 vs Oct 2024) 

  - 1.1% (Oct 2024 vs Oct 2023)         

Key Insights from October’s Canadian Housing Data

 

Our latest analysis reveals several trends worth watching closely:

  1. Housing starts dipped year-over-year for the first time in 6 months.
    After a steady run of increases, October marks a reversal, raising questions about how builders may respond heading into winter.

  2. Absorption rates at completion are weakening.
    The share of units absorbed at completion fell from 86% in April 2024 to 73% in October 2025.
    Could this softer demand signal further declines in both housing starts and completions in the coming months?

  3. GTA home sales are at a historic low.
    The Greater Toronto Area is on track for ~62,500 sales in 2025:

  • 10% fewer than last year

  • Lowest annual total since 2000

A clear sign of how affordability pressures and higher rates are reshaping buyer behaviour.

 

We’ll continue to monitor the data and will share another update as soon as November numbers are released. Stay tuned.

Building Construction Price Index

The Building Construction Price Indexes (BCPI) are quarterly series that measure change over time in the prices that contractors charge to construct a range of new buildings. Understanding these indexes helps track construction cost trends, assess inflation in the building industry, and inform budgeting and investment decisions.

Index (2017) = 100

Home Building Costs and Times

Costs: The expenses involved in delivering housing, from hard and soft costs, to financing and municipal fees. Understanding how these costs change over time is essential to identifying where innovation can reduce pressure and make homebuilding more viable across Canada.

Time: The average duration from permit approval to project completion. Long timelines drive up financing and carrying costs, stall delivery, and limit responsiveness to demand. Reducing time to build makes housing more affordable and scalable.

(As % of Total Costs)

(Number of Months)