We're tracking the data that matters most to understand where the system is breaking down—and how to fix it.
Starts (Actual)
+ 25.3% (Dec 2025 vs Dec 2024)
- 11.1% (Dec 2024 vs Dec 2023)
Completions
+ 2.9% (Dec 2025 vs Dec 2024)
+ 41.5% (Dec 2024 vs Dec 2023)
Cost to Build
+ 4.2% (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
+ 3.9% (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023)
Permits Issued
+ 0.5% (Nov 2025 vs Nov 2024)
- 0.2% (Nov 2024 vs Nov 2023)
Project Times
- 3.9% (Dec 2025 vs Dec 2024)
21.3% (Dec 2024 vs Dec 2023)
Key Insights from December’s Canadian Housing Data
After a couple of months of softening, housing starts finally bounced back in December: Starts (Actual) in December rose 25.3% year-over-year, suggesting builders re-engaging as year-end conditions stabilized. A key question is whether this improvement represents a catch-up from delayed projects or the start of a more durable reacceleration in construction activity?
Housing completions remain on an upward trend: Despite the volatility in starts earlier in the quarter, housing completions have now grown year-over-year for six consecutive months, reinforcing the strength of the construction backlog. With a growing volume of projects reaching delivery, near-term supply pressures are likely to persist, particularly in markets where absorption has already slowed.
Project timelines continue to improve: Project times have declined year-over-year in ten of the last twelve months, suggesting sustained gains in construction efficiency, labour availability, and supply-chain normalization. Faster timelines can materially improve project economics by reducing carrying costs and execution risk. The emerging question for developers is whether these efficiency gains will be reinvested into accelerating new project launches, or conserved as a buffer against softer pricing and absorption conditions.
Under construction inventory declined for the first time in six quarters: For the first time since Q1 2022, under construction inventory fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025. More notably, this is the first occurrence since Q1 2015 in which under construction inventory declined across all dwelling types (single-detached, semi-detached, row, and apartment units). This broad-based contraction indicates that project completions are now outpacing new starts. With data unavailable between Q1 2023 and Q2 2025, the full trajectory remains partially obscured; however, the decline raises a critical question: does this reflect the early stages of a structurally leaner construction pipeline, or merely a temporary pause before starts reaccelerate in response to evolving policy and financing conditions?
We’ll continue to monitor the data and will share another update as soon as January numbers are released. Stay tuned.
Building Construction Price Index
The Building Construction Price Indexes (BCPI) are quarterly series that measure change over time in the prices that contractors charge to construct a range of new buildings. Understanding these indexes helps track construction cost trends, assess inflation in the building industry, and inform budgeting and investment decisions.
Home Building Costs and Times
Costs: The expenses involved in delivering housing, from hard and soft costs, to financing and municipal fees. Understanding how these costs change over time is essential to identifying where innovation can reduce pressure and make homebuilding more viable across Canada.
Time: The average duration from permit approval to project completion. Long timelines drive up financing and carrying costs, stall delivery, and limit responsiveness to demand. Reducing time to build makes housing more affordable and scalable.
Notes:
Completions, Project Times and Permits Issued (by Census Metropolitan Areas)
Housing Starts (by Census Metropolitan Areas, Census Agglomerations, and other, selected municipalities with at least 10,000 people)
Cost to Build (by Fifteen Census Metropolitan Area Composite)
Data Source: CMHC Housing Market Information Portal